Event: CMG reports its fiscal Q1 earnings after the close today. The options are pricing in about a 7.5% move based on the weekly straddle, relative to the 10.75% four quarter average and 7.5% … [Read more...]
$CMG – Q4 Earnings Preview
1:41 pm EDT - February 5, 2013 By Dan
Event: CMG reports full Q4 earnings after the close tonight. The options market is implying about a 6.5%* move vs the 4 qtr avg of about 10%. The implied move appears light to historical moves as … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/26/12: No Point Crying Over Spilled Kool-Aid
9:02 am EDT - October 26, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/26/12: We talk about AAPL a lot on the site, primarily because we are fascinated by the psychology around the stock, not just with investors, but the way the stock is viewed by Wall … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/25/12: I Assume Barron’s Think’s FB is “Still Too Pricey”
9:29 am EDT - October 25, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/25/12: To say FB caught a bid yesterday was an understatement. The way the stock opened, up more than 20%, it acted like the highly anticipated strong IPO it was meant to be back on … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/24/12: Despite Spot VIX Up 35% in a Week, Futures Curve Wreaks of Complacency:
9:34 am EDT - October 24, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/24/12: As bad as yesterday's sell off in equities felt, it could have been a lot worse if it wasn't for some relative strength shown by some recently beleaguered tech and consumer … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/23/12: Slow and Steady Could Be The Trade
9:10 am EDT - October 23, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/23/12: On RiskReversal, we spend a lot of time looking at and trading high-fliers, generally because it is a bit more fun than trading consumer staples and utilities, and the stories … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/22/12: AAPL’s Big Week, Not Just About the AMZN Kindle Fire “Extinguisher”
9:27 am EDT - October 22, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/22/12: Shortly after AAPL's introduction of the iPad in 2010, Steve Jobs famously dubbed competitors (who were slightly caught off sides in the category) efforts to introduce 7 … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/19/12: Soft Results from Mr. Softee
9:18 am EDT - October 19, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/19/12: As traders and even as purveyors of RiskReversal.com, we make mistakes on a daily basis. Most readers of the site get what we are trying to do, and understand that we will … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/18/12: iPad Mini – Not Revolutionary or Even Evolutionary, Purely Defensive
9:28 am EDT - October 18, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/18/12: This past Tuesday I was on CNBC's Fast Money at 5pm, and the unthinkable happened........AAPL earlier that day had sent out a media invite for the iPad Mini announcement, … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/17/12: Micro & Macro Pulling at Each-other, Again
9:17 am EDT - October 17, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/17/12: As we get into the meat of earnings season this week and next there appears to be a slightly some divergent inputs btwn the Micro and the Macro. First off, Enis last … [Read more...]
CMG Q3 Earnings Preview
8:02 am EDT - October 17, 2012 By Enis
Event: CMG reports Q3 earnings Thursday afternoon after the market close. The options market is implying about a 8.5% move, which is in line with the 4 quarter average of 8.5%, but slightly above the … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/16/12: From Being Defensive to Being On The Defensive
9:25 am EDT - October 16, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/16/12: On numerous occasions in the last few weeks we have highlighted the weakening momentum among previous market leaders. The jury is still out on whether we have just seen a bit … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/15/12: Dollars Certainly Don’t Grow On Trees
9:09 am EDT - October 15, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/15/12: Last week at their annual analyst meeting, Dollar Tree (DLTR) guided revenues to the low end of the previous range given in July. The stock got drilled, down about 12.5% … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/12/12: Declining Breadth & Nasty Squeezes
9:08 am EDT - October 12, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/12/12: Yesterday's action in U.S. equities was a fairly clear indication of declining momentum as many of the prior market leaders seem to be losing a little steam. The SPX and the … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/11/12: NOK From Wallflower to the Belle Of the Ball?
9:01 am EDT - October 11, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 10/11/12: Last night, in his Too Many Options, Enis flagged a large options trade that caught me by surprise in NOK. Someone bought 44k of the Jan14 5 calls for .37, with a break-even … [Read more...]
MorningWord 10/31/12: Trick or Treat – Q4 Guidance Maybe Suspect as a Result of Sandy
MorningWord 10/31/12: For most in NYC, myself included, the last few days has been nothing more than an inconvenience, while many in some of the outer-boroughs, Long Island, and New Jersey have … [Read more...]