MorningWord 2/21/13: The Great $GOOG ‘ly Moogly

MorningWord 2/21/13:  We have gotten our share of questions about GOOG of late, most of which relate to how to get short at all time highs.  We have done our best to fight certain urges in the recent run up.  Many traders want to make the comparison to AAPL’s run to all time highs, and subsequent 30% plus decline in 2012.  From where I sit  and taking off my contrarian hat, there are few AAPL related analogies that suggest GOOG is set to decline 30% over the coming months, barring, of course, a market meltdown and / or substantial consecutive disappointments.  

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MorningWord 2/20/13:   Last night I spoke on a panel at the Traders Expo in New York and met a lot of self-directed traders, just like you.  During the presentation we took a bunch of questions, and I spoke to probably 2 dozen individuals before and after, and to be frank I was mildly interested by the state of worry that exists about the market at current levels.  Maybe just maybe they knew exactly who they were talking to, a current bear, but my sense is that these people were not “all in” the market, and in some ways fearful of missing a blow off top, while looking for a near term pullback.   The reason I bring this up is it’s sort of opposite to the apparent levels of complacency that exist in sentiment readings and instruments like VIX.  

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MorningWord 2/19/13:  Sometimes when it comes to trading, I like to kick it Ol’ Skool by looking at company whose products I can see and feel in everyday use, or in the case of GRMN, RARELY see or feel.   The evolution of GPS devices from personal navigation devices (PNDs) a decade ago, to nearly universal in car navigation to now FREE turn by turn directions on Google Maps Apps (or if you feel like getting lost, Apple Maps) for nearly every smartphone has the potential to bring a multi-billion industry to its knees, if it hasn’t already.

I started looking at GRMN a few weeks back when I saw the gap on volume in late Dec on the announcement that they were being added to the S&P500 index (below).

GRMN 2 yr chart from Bloomberg

GRMN 2 yr chart from Bloomberg

 

Over the past few years when the smartphone wars have been raging, and casualties have been mounting (PALM, MMI, RIMM, MSFT, NOK), GRMN’s failure with their NUVI-phone a few years back has widely been forgotten.

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