Macro Wrap – 7 Straight Weeks Higher

The SPX index is on track for its 7th straight week of gains, quite a rare occurrence by itself, but all the more rare since it is a winning streak ongoing since the first week of 2013.  I went back and looked at the past 8 years, and found only 2 other instances where the SPX had 7 straight weeks of uninterrupted moves higher:

8 year weekly chart of SPX, courtesy of Bloomberg

8 year weekly chart of SPX, courtesy of Bloomberg

 

I’ve circled in red the 2 other instances, one that ended in May 2007, and the other that ended in Jan 2011.  I actually went back and looked at the past 15 years, and there was only one other instance, from Dec 2003 – Jan 2004, but I didn’t stretch the chart back that far since it became harder to read.

In short, a 7 week winning streak is a very rare occurrence.  Of course, it doesn’t tell us much about the next move for prices from here, but I do think it’s notable for what it tells us about market structure over the past few years.  The stock market has gotten much streakier, where it experiences periods of very positive price action, followed by periods of very negative price action, rather than the choppy back and forth that characterized much of market action prior to the financial crisis.  In other words, there is more herding and price chasing that occurs today than in the past.  Novel times indeed.

Markets overnight:

  • Asian price action was all green with the exception of Japan, down 1%.  
  • Europe opened flat, but is now up 0.3%.  Peripheral yields are lower by 5-10 bps.
  • SPX futures traded in a 3 point range overnight, now up 0.2%.
  • Dollar and Treasuries lower, and commodities are mixed.
  • Retail Sales data released at 8:30 am.
  • CSCO reports after the close.
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