MorningWord 11/15/12: This morning in his MacroWrap, my esteemed colleague Enis Taner teased readers with his inclination to hang up his “Bear Suit” for the time being. But let me be clear, this is a short term stance predicated on the SPX’s near term oversold condition, macro inputs that may suggest that selling is abating, and the dramatic short term sentiment shift we have seen of late. While I share his sentiment that we may bounce soon and re-trace a portion of the 8% sell off from the Sept highs, I would suggest that the range may be in for the year and that it could be 1400 to 1300, which at this point we are basically smack dab in the middle.
MorningWord 11/14/12: Last night CSCO reported results for their fiscal Q1 and issued Q2 guidance that were in line to slightly better than what could only be described as modest expectations. My thoughts yesterday morning in this space was that CSCO CEO John Chambers would see little upside by sticking his neck out to far on the guidance front, regardless of how good he felt about business given the fiscal and macro uncertainty here and abroad. I think it is safe to say that he came short of calling a “turn.” But the status quo, with a cautiously optimistic bent for a company like CSCO that has been in a multi-year turnaround, appears to be good enough as the stock is bid up 9% in the pre-market. Far outpacing the implied move of about 6.5%.
MorningWord 11/13/12: Brick by brick, it seems that investors are taking apart this year’s tech rally in that had largely been built by a handful of large components. Q3 earnings season started out with fairly sizable disappointments from INTC, IBM & GOOG, and spread their way to AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TXN, JNPR. To be fair there have been a few bright-spots, namely: EBAY, YHOO, FB & QCOM, but in most cases, the surprises can be largely explained as stock specific.
MorningWord 11/12/12: As a 40 year old dude with a wife and 2 kids, I don’t get to watch nearly as much NFL football as I once did and that I would like to. My viewing usually starts midway into the second afternoon game with repeated family and work related interruptions until I pass out in the 3rd period of the evening game. Ok maybe a little too much info, but this is where I kind of tie it all in, was it just me or was your NFL time yesterday totally ruined (regardless of the network) by the incessant barrage of un-watchable MSFT Surface commercials?? I mean, I guess you can’t argue with MSFT and their hardware providers of Windows8 to give the whole thing a shot, but come on, I have to assume that they scared away more consumers with that whole “Click” business than they were likely to gain. If you havn’t seen the commercial, have a go, but I advise that you do so with any empty stomach and then tell me I am wrong: