Readers of my little rant in the MorningWord this am (here) can tell that I am a bit skeptical of YUM's about-face on their recent guidance of sales in China. Last night's press release, which was … [Read more...]
New Trade $NKE: Using Dec Weekly Puts to Finance My Bearish Earnings Trade
2:28 pm EDT - November 30, 2012 By Dan
$WFM – Stock Way Too Rich, Waiting For Trade Entry Soon
1:39 pm EDT - November 30, 2012 By Enis
As Dan and I were discussing Whole Foods stock this morning, he said, "Whole Foods is a freakin' grocery store that trades at 32x next year's earnings that are expected to grow 15%...that's just … [Read more...]
Trade Update ABT – Taking Off Call Diagonal For Flat
10:24 am EDT - November 30, 2012 By Enis
Trade Update Nov. 30th, 2012 at 10:20 am: I walked through my thoughts this morning in the Macro Wrap on the ABT call diagonal I traded in October. In short, there are 2 reasons why I'm taking the … [Read more...]
MorningWord 11/30/12: $YUM May Have A Slight Guidance Credibility Problem
9:24 am EDT - November 30, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 11/30/12: On a daily basis we do our best to look at the markets from both qualitative and quantitative standpoints and provide readers with non-consensus views, sometimes we even hit … [Read more...]
Enis’s Macro Wrap – The Beauty of Calendar Spreads
7:22 am EDT - November 30, 2012 By Enis
Since it was a quiet overnight session, with not much new to note, I want to take a detour from the macro this morning to focus on some trade school. We use calendar spreads very frequently on the … [Read more...]
Too Many Options: Almost All Tech
5:26 pm EDT - November 29, 2012 By Enis
Very tech heavy day in the options market today. INTC - The largest single options print of the day. The Dec / Jan13 21 put calendar traded 48k times this morning for 0.16. The customer bought … [Read more...]
Chart of the Day – $GOOG vs. $MSFT for Talking Numbers
2:28 pm EDT - November 29, 2012 By Enis
Here’s a preview of what I’ll be discussing on Talking Numbers today around 3:20 to 3:30 pm EST on CNBC: Both MSFT and GOOG are up single digits in 2012, but you wouldn't know it by looking at … [Read more...]
Trade Update – $BA : Buying Back Short Dec Put, Turning Calendar Into Outright Long Put
1:13 pm EDT - November 29, 2012 By Enis
Trade Update Nov. 29th, 2012 at 1:15pm: This is a rather quick change in stance from a trade I initially put on 2 days ago. But circumstances have changed, so I have modified the trade. … [Read more...]
New Trade $SPY: Cliff Outcomes Will Be Clear As Mud For The Next Couple Weeks
10:17 am EDT - November 29, 2012 By Dan
After the nearly 6% rally of the last 9 trading days , the SPX is now down less than 4% from the 52 week highs made in Sept. While the investment community appears squarely focused on the … [Read more...]
MorningWord 11/29/12: Cliff or Not, High End Retail Challenged By Weak Global Growth-$TIF
9:24 am EDT - November 29, 2012 By Dan
MorningWord 11/29/12: The discussion about the potential outcomes of the "fiscal cliff" has of late left Wall Street and is now finding its way to Main Street. This was fairly evident at President … [Read more...]
Enis’s Macro Wrap – Changing Nature of Volatility
7:54 am EDT - November 29, 2012 By Enis
The past 4 months have been the first 4 month period since late 2006, early 2007 that the VIX has not breached the 20 level. In the context of market history, there have been longer periods when the … [Read more...]
Too Many Options: Light Day, $AAPL weeklies dominate
4:59 pm EDT - November 28, 2012 By Kristen
On a day when stock volume was above average, options volumes were actually relatively light. Single stock volumes were dominated by AAPL weekly options. AAPL - 6 of the top 10 most traded … [Read more...]
Trade Update $F – Taking Quick Gains, Will Revisit Later
3:40 pm EDT - November 28, 2012 By Enis
Trade Update Nov. 28th, 2012 at 3:40pm: Since buying the Ford call spread on Nov. 16th, the stock has rallied 7% along with the broader market. I've documented over the past couple days … [Read more...]
From Growth Compression to Reflation: The Road Ahead – Guest Post: Jay Pelosky
2:32 pm EDT - November 28, 2012 By Dan
Jay Pelosky, a friend and Principal at J2Z Advisory, LLC, is an investment strategy consultancy and former head of Morgan Stanley global asset allocation research. He is an expert on all things macro … [Read more...]
VIX Futures Snapshot – No Desire for Protection
1:24 pm EDT - November 28, 2012 By Enis
The holiday is done and passed, and fiscal cliff headlines are heating up the tape, but the VIX is having none of it, indicating that traders are still not impressed by recent volatility. With 30 … [Read more...]
Too Many Options: Protection Buying Rampant
The VIX was up 5% on a quiet Friday, as investors started reaching for put protection for the first time in a few weeks. The CBOE put/call ratio was also much higher, after starting the week near … [Read more...]